What the Shinkansen Delay Means for Niseko – And Why Investors Are Staying Put

Hello, I’m Robert Alan Holmes from Niseko Investments. I’ve called Hokkaido home for over 30 years, and I’ve spent two decades watching Niseko evolve into one of the world’s top alpine investment destinations.

Lately, one topic has caught everyone’s attention: the delay of the Hokkaido Shinkansen extension to Kutchan. So, what does this mean for Niseko’s real estate market? Here’s what you need to know – and why I believe the fundamentals remain as strong as ever.

Real Estate Values: Still Resilient

Yes, the bullet train to Kutchan will likely arrive later than 2030 – possibly around 2038. But even before the Shinkansen plans took shape, Niseko’s land values were soaring. Hirafu-zaka saw a 14-fold increase from 2014 to 2020. Tourists keep coming, infrastructure keeps improving, and international awareness of Niseko’s appeal has only grown.

While some expected a price spike around 2030 tied to the Shinkansen opening, the current situation should be viewed more as a delay of the peak rather than a disruption of the cycle. This means that real estate prices are likely to hold steady — or even continue rising — albeit on a longer timeline. The fundamentals of demand, lifestyle value, and infrastructure momentum remain unchanged.

Importantly, unlike speculative boom-bust markets, Niseko’s growth has been driven by sustained foreign interest, improving amenities, and consistent tourism figures. In 2024 alone, Niseko welcomed over 2.9 million visitors — a 12% increase year-over-year — which reinforces confidence in long-term demand.

Local Voices and Investor Sentiment

Some locals and developers are understandably disappointed, but most investors – especially from overseas – are staying the course. The yen is favorable, tourism is up, and for many foreign buyers, rail access isn’t the priority – lifestyle is. Year-round outdoor activities, powder snow, international schools, and high-quality F&B options have become core parts of Niseko’s appeal.

In fact, some investors now see the delay as an opportunity: a rare window before the next appreciation cycle. Properties that may have become overpriced by 2030 are now within reach for mid- to long-term investors.

Lessons from Furano, Zermatt, and Banff

Other resorts like Furano (Japan), Zermatt (Switzerland), and Banff (Canada) have seen strong real estate growth without relying on high-speed rail. In 2024, Furano recorded Japan’s highest land value increase at 27.9%, despite having no Shinkansen access. The key? Well-developed resort offerings, international branding, and strong access via highways and regional airports.

Niseko shares these strengths and is further supported by growing recognition on global platforms such as American Express, which named Niseko one of the world’s top travel destinations.

Looking Ahead

More direct international flights. A new expressway to reduce drive times by 20% from New Chitose Airport by 2027. Over 2,200 new hotel rooms planned by 2029. Niseko’s momentum continues.

The Shinkansen will arrive eventually – and when it does, it’ll be the cherry on top. But investors don’t need to wait for a train to recognize a rare opportunity.

Now is the time to refine plans, pick up overlooked parcels, and position for long-term returns. Niseko isn’t slowing down — it’s pacing itself for a longer, stronger ascent.

Let’s talk if you want to get ahead of the next curve.